NEW: An updated US intelligence assessment on Ukraine is ominous: US believes Russia is accelerating preparations for an invasion that could result in 50k civilian deaths, 5 million refugees and the fall of Kyiv in 2 days, sources tell @washingtonpost 1/https://t.co/m5zGm5Z4jN
— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) February 6, 2022
đ¨NEW, THREAD: In closed door briefings in the House and Senate last week, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley told lawmakers Kiev could fall within 72 hours, at a cost of 4,000 Russian troop deaths and 15,000 Ukrainian troop deaths, multiple congressional sources say.
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) February 5, 2022
Russia sent a pair of long-range nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over its ally Belarus amid spiraling tensions over Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry said the two bombers practiced interacting with the Belarusian air force and air defense. https://t.co/vakED5zql3
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 6, 2022
Ukraine Gave Up Nuclear Weapons 30 Years Ago. Today There Are Regrets. – The New York Times https://t.co/hFXrY1i4fm
— John Sipher (@john_sipher) February 5, 2022
Russian forces at 70% of level needed for full Ukraine invasion, U.S. officials say https://t.co/91uX2tJw3J pic.twitter.com/BLAdzEeGPg
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 6, 2022
If Donald Trump had won "Russians would already be in Kyiv," John Bolton says https://t.co/PEd5tcsXyt
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) February 4, 2022
If the Magnitsky Act is used properly and intensively against Putinâs oligarch trustees it could prevent a war from happening in Ukraine. https://t.co/zgXiAUoVpa
— Bill Browder (@Billbrowder) February 5, 2022
Wetlands and radioactive soil: How Ukraineâs geography could influence a Russian invasion https://t.co/zWsPNT1jJG
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) February 5, 2022
When the Biden administration was asked for evidence to back up national security claims, it simply demurred: Youâll have to trust us. They would not reveal how they knew that Russia was plotting a false flag operation as a pretext to invade Ukraine. https://t.co/1ycjx4C4ap
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 5, 2022
'I'll just close my eyes and pretend they don't exist": Russian president when Ukraine's team shows up at the Olympics opening ceremony pic.twitter.com/QQlSxoc8bO
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) February 4, 2022
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has tested positive for the coronavirus, he announced on Twitter on Saturday, two days after a visit to Ukraine during which he met with that countryâs president, Volodymyr Zelensky. https://t.co/OK1Rg7ZqtK
— The New York Times (@nytimes) February 5, 2022
So Bloomberg has the headline "Russia Invades Ukraine" ready, just in case. pic.twitter.com/h3zPNhhLwp
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) February 5, 2022
***
Jan 6 Committee turns the screws
âWe view this as the most serious threat to the continuation of American democracy that any of us has ever seen in our lifetimes," Rep. Raskin says. https://t.co/NphqMJ7oVd
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) February 5, 2022
The House committee investigating the assault on the Capitol and what led to it is employing the aggressive tactics prosecutors use on mobsters and terrorists. https://t.co/UpuxgQFQQc
— The New York Times (@nytimes) February 5, 2022
The House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol has obtained White House records showing then-Pres. Trump spoke with GOP Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio that morning, a source confirmed to @ABC News Friday. https://t.co/XgSqFha3Zy
— ABC News (@ABC) February 5, 2022
Overnight, while lots of people were busy whinging on Twitter, it was revealed that DOJ subpoenaed the call records of the lawyer for Bannon and Giuliani, to get records on how Trump is trying to cover up Jan 6. https://t.co/2uKJKE0WhH https://t.co/VnnvLR4TpS
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) February 5, 2022
That basically is what he was doing — he was hoping for any sign of 'antifa'/left activity to call then call in Nat Guard (with the help of Pentagon allies, Flynn bro, etc) and shut down the Capitol and stop Biden's certification
— Will Bunch (@Will_Bunch) February 5, 2022
.@MaddowBlog: We know former President Trump wanted to "change the outcome" and "overturn the election" because he's now admitted it in writing. https://t.co/LfLDLAKlS5
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) February 5, 2022
#BREAKING: Jan. 6 defendant asks to subpoena Trump as trial witness https://t.co/KinD2SDDBV pic.twitter.com/C0wctGR4FR
— The Hill (@thehill) February 5, 2022
Trump tore up briefings and schedules, articles and letters, memos both sensitive and mundane.He ripped paper into quarters with two big, clean strokesâor occasionally more vigorously, into smaller scraps. And he did it all in violation of the Records Act. https://t.co/jkoiun6dkI
— Ashley Parker (@AshleyRParker) February 5, 2022
NEW: To develop evidence to push DOJ on Trump, J6C operates like feds targeting terrorists/mobsters. J6C using 6 lowlevel aides to dish on stonewalling Trump bosses. J6C feeding subpoenaed phone records into link analysis,a FBI tool to map terror networks https://t.co/oWa98KJPKI pic.twitter.com/UdxV8vKkUS
— Michael S. Schmidt (@nytmike) February 5, 2022
.@matthewjdowd: "Donald Trump was basically a reflection of who the Republican Party is as opposed to a cause of it." #TheReidOut #reiders pic.twitter.com/1Hz1XLjgPG
— The ReidOut (@thereidout) February 5, 2022
What we are witnessing is a national emergency. My thoughts on the RNC resolution that characterizes the events of January 6th as âlegitimate political discourse.â https://t.co/9DD3VTK1Qc
— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) February 5, 2022
I remember hating it when media outlets covered the Westboro Baptist Church like it was an actual church with actual influence. It was fringe of fringe of fringe.
— David French (@DavidAFrench) February 5, 2022
But Greg Locke? He's Westboro with 2.2 million Facebook followers. https://t.co/3fykkKAwn8
***
Chaos at every turn
They report Boris Johnson has been âexploring opportunitiesâ in US where he could make $250k per speech after leaving office.
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) February 5, 2022
Three different sources say Carrie Johnson has grown weary of pressure, and has privately voiced view it might be preferable for him to throw in towel.
Now listen, Americans, a year from now, if someone calling himself "disgraced former prime minister Boris Johnson" knocks on your door with a speech and saying he wants $250,000 for it, you just tell him to fuck off, ok? https://t.co/UkUiSjVHy8
— Dan Davies (@dsquareddigest) February 5, 2022
when your most vocal defender is Nadine Dorries, itâs time to go https://t.co/OfvcvNKUeE
— Henry Mance (@henrymance) February 5, 2022
I love that noone has taken this down from Dorries's Wiki page. pic.twitter.com/fKaAzDLSxM
— BrĂłnagh đˇđđ (@BeebsyMcA) February 5, 2022
Going out on a limb here but I wonder if it might have been a mistake to put Dorries in the cabinet pic.twitter.com/8P2teo7Ttd
— Jonathan Lis (@jonlis1) February 5, 2022
The Nadine Dorries interview wasn't a car crash.
— joe heenan (@joeheenan) February 5, 2022
It was more like a coach full of orphans smashing into a petrol station & then the petrol station erupting in a fireball causing one of the pumps to skyrocket in the air & plummet back down completely obliterating a petting zoo
Boris Johnson wrote that the most important thing in politics is to assemble "a disciplined and deluded collection of stoogesâ around himself.
— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) February 5, 2022
He said the stooges want "so much to believe" their relationship is special, that they shut out the truth. https://t.co/A1dIxza2LA pic.twitter.com/7T5f4RNch7
Chief of staff to the leader of a major country is a definitional 7 day a week job. It is simply not compatible with constituency service or duties and votes in parliament. To do it properly and seriously he would have to resign as an MP. What is Boris Johnson thinking? https://t.co/MQRL2m6UYU
— Rory Stewart (@RoryStewartUK) February 5, 2022
Whatâs really deplorable is that NONE of this…neither Sunak or Javidâs mild rebukes of Johnson, nor the defense of Johnson by his allies …is motivated by anything other than self interest. None of it. Itâs only ever about them, not us. https://t.co/N74tKNDHSj
— alexandra hall hall (@alexhallhall) February 5, 2022
What does it take. For @BorisJohnson it is over. The public are angry at the flagrant disregard for the rules the PM put in place. Johnson must listen to the expression of public revulsion and go. https://t.co/oAb02AduJO
— Ian Blackford (@Ianblackford_MP) February 5, 2022
To blame for instability in N.Ireland
— Deirdre Heenan (@deirdreheenan) February 5, 2022
Irish Government
EU
Judges
The BBC
Academics
Theresa May
Nationalist Activists
Boris Johnson
Civil Service
Businesses
Michael D Higgins
Not to blame
The DUP who championed the hardest #brexit and collapsed the powersharing Executive https://t.co/6kHVc9RIWc
Gavin Barwell, Theresa Mayâs former chief of staff says âIt should now be clear to the DUP that supporting Brexit was a huge strategic error for them & unionism. Itâs reduced support for the Union & itâs led to a border in the Irish Sea.â https://t.co/SXgjpFzkEC
— Joe Brolly (@JoeBrolly1993) February 4, 2022
Just as Brexit was intended to strengthen the Union but weakened it, so an order by DUP minister Edwin Poots to stop checks could see them increase: The potential logic flowing from what Iâm told is part of ex-Attorney General Larkinâs advice to Poots…https://t.co/R5exE2IszF
— Sam McBride (@SJAMcBride) February 5, 2022
In tomorrowâs Sunday Independent, my report on Stormont crisis:
— Rodney Edwards (@rodneyedwards) February 5, 2022
âžď¸DUP decided to quit hours after Donaldson met loyalists
âžď¸Givan âwonders if he could have done more to stay as FMâ
âžď¸Why Givan was respected more by Sinn Fein than Foster
âžď¸How Coveney has stopped phoning Donaldson pic.twitter.com/HlUXSMjmtB
We have a pandemic.
— đ alt – DUP (@dup_online) February 3, 2022
Hospital waiting lists are worsening.
People can't heat their homes.
Brexit is adding costs for businesses and consumers.
Donaldson collapsed the Assembly because of a rose bush. pic.twitter.com/LyqDhyAH55
— William McGowan (@WilliamMcGowa15) February 3, 2022
The Overnight Note 